3. Climate Change and Personal Insolvency
3.1. The Problem of Causation
It is difficult to measure the relationship between climate change and the personal insolvency system precisely. As scientists frequently observe, it is not possible to prove that any single event was the result of climate change — only that it has increased the probability of such events occurring.[1] Even if we accept, in a general sense, that climate change is leading to an overall increase in the number and severity of natural disasters,[2] the relationship between a specific disaster and personal insolvency rates is still not clear. There is typically a ‘lag’ between the immediate impact of an event, such as a bushfire, flood or drought, and any resulting personal insolvencies.[3] A study published in the United States (‘US’), tracking the impact of hurricanes on bankruptcy filings, found that the greatest impact on bankruptcy filings could occur years after the disaster.[4] This study observed that hurricanes may produce ‘short-term increases in economic activity once the immediate physical destruction and dislocation of a hurricane abates’. However, in the long term, ‘financial losses offset these short term gains’ and lead to a spike in bankruptcy rates.[5]
This observation holds true in the Australian context. In 2011, the Hon. Paul de Jersey, then Chief Justice of the Queensland Supreme Court, discussed the extremely severe floods that had affected Queensland in January of that year. His Honour noted that the immediate financial impact of a flood could be disguised by government aid. Yet ‘[o]ver time, the financial pain for victims may actually increase, as destroyed resources and businesses lead to unemployment, personal savings are depleted, and the value of assets afflicted by the disaster plummets due to re-zoning and keen market awareness of the disaster’.[6] More recent research has pointed out that, in the aftermath of a disaster, the cost of repairing or rebuilding a home can be far higher than anticipated, due to intense demand for supplies and tradespeople.[7] Acute demand for temporary accommodation can also inflate the cost of housing[8] and, in turn, increase reliance on credit to meet daily living costs. Creditors may not immediately descend on communities affected by a natural disaster. In time, however, they will begin to resume their normal collections activities.[9] Individuals and households vary widely in their capacity to withstand the financial shock of such events, with cash reserves, debt levels, ability to access credit, job security, social networks and many other factors playing a part. For this reason, in Australia, as in the US, the personal insolvencies resulting from an extreme weather event may be delayed, and occur at irregular intervals, making them difficult to measure.[10]
3.2. The Absence of Data
Compounding this difficulty, the data collected by the regulator offers little insight into the potential impact of extreme weather on the personal insolvency system. As Chief Justice de Jersey noted in 2011, ‘bankruptcy law deals only with process, and not the fact-specific circumstances behind each application’. It does not make ‘substantive or procedural distinctions based on why the debtor files’.[11] For this reason, the data gathered by AFSA does not enquire, in any detail, into the causes of the individual’s financial hardship. When people apply to enter personal insolvency, they must complete a detailed ‘Statement of Affairs’ form providing information about their assets, debts, income and other matters. Until 2020, this form invited applicants to nominate the ‘main cause’ of their insolvencies. Those who considered their personal insolvencies to be ‘business-related’ were invited to nominate ‘seasonal conditions including floods and drought’, among other options. In 2020, AFSA released a new, simpler version of the form.[12] This form no longer includes flood, drought or other natural events among the possible causes of personal insolvency.[13] This means that the data gathered by AFSA, though extremely useful in many respects, does not provide an easy way to measure the impact of drought, flood or other weather events on the personal insolvency system.
Case Study: The 2011 Queensland Floods
In the absence of quantitative data, we can look to media reports, public inquiries and other sources for qualitative evidence that extreme weather is placing Australians at increasing risk of personal insolvency. The Queensland floods of 2011 provide a vivid insight into the potentially severe and long-lasting financial impacts of extreme weather. The floods were caused by a severe tropical cyclone, Cyclone Tasha, which originated in the Coral Sea and reached the northern coast of Queensland on 25 December 2010.[14] With the cyclone came heavy rain, which spread southward and caused extensive flooding in many areas of Queensland. The floodwaters reached the regional city of Toowoomba on 10 January 2011 and the state’s capital, Brisbane, on 12 January.[15] A Commission of Inquiry in 2012 found that 78% of the state was declared a disaster zone, with 2.5 million people affected and 29,000 homes and businesses experiencing ‘some form of inundation’.[16] Thirty-three people lost their lives. Compounding the trauma of these deaths, and the terror of witnessing the flood descending on their towns, many Queenslanders returned to homes that were saturated with dirty water and smeared with foul-smelling mud.[17] By 24 January 2011, the Insurance Council of Australia reported that victims of the floods had lodged more than 31,000 separate claims worth $1.2 billion.[18] By November 2011, this figure had risen to 58,463 claims.[19] The Commission of Inquiry estimated that the total cost of the floods exceeded $5 billion.[20]
As the Chief Justice noted in his 2011 address, the floods created immediate, intense financial hardship for many thousands of people. ‘Many individuals and businesses … had to confront the reality of having their home, belongings, cars and paperwork washed away,’ His Honour observed, ‘whilst the obligation to pay for such items persist[ed] as well as the need to replace them.’[21] The floods created particular challenges for homeowners with mortgages: some properties depreciated sharply in value,[22] to the extent that the owners’ mortgages were greater than the value of the property.[23] Victims endured months of uncertainty, as they waited for insurance companies to process and assess their claims. As the Commission of Inquiry found, many households affected by the Queensland floods did not understand that their insurance policies excluded flood cover. Some discovered too late that their policies did not include flood damage or only covered certain types of flood (eg a ‘flash flood’), meaning that their claims were declined.[24] In April 2011, the Brisbane-based Courier-Mail reported that the financial impact of the floods was only gradually ‘becoming apparent’ as insurers finalised claims, with households frequently receiving less than they expected and some learning that they were not eligible for compensation at all.[25] The newspaper noted that while quarterly personal insolvencies had declined nationally by 16%, compared to the previous year, they remained ‘stubbornly high’ in Queensland.[26] This is confirmed by AFSA’s published statistics[27] and became more pronounced in the two-year period following the floods. In the first quarter of 2013, there were 2,176 personal insolvencies in Queensland, a decrease of 8% from the first quarter of 2010. By contrast, national personal insolvencies declined to 7,442, a decrease of 18% over the same period.[28]
The financial impacts of the 2011 Queensland floods were still palpable when the same region suffered further extreme flooding in 2022. This flood, which affected south-east Queensland as well as large areas of New South Wales, was at that time ‘the costliest climate driven disaster in Australia’s history’.[29] For those who had already experienced the 2011 Queensland floods, its impact was especially acute. A national news outlet reported the experience of one man, living in Grantham, whose family was ‘still reeling financially from the floods of 2011’.[30] The family had declared bankruptcy after the 2011 floods and had ‘just got out of bankruptcy’ when the 2022 floods occurred. ‘We’ll probably end up back there again,’ the man reflected.[31] For some, the 2022 floods were even more harmful than those of 2011, because in the intervening period, their insurance policies had become unaffordable. In Grantham, in 2022, an auto warehouse owner told reporters he had lost 60 uninsured cars in the floods.[32] Following the 2022 floods, a Senate Select Committee Inquiry identified significant failures in the insurance industry’s response to extreme weather events. It noted that, for many victims, the experience of pursuing ‘prolonged and complex claims’ was ‘more traumatic than the disaster itself’.[33] While the committee did not specifically consider the link between such events and personal insolvency, it observed that for a particularly ‘vulnerable cohort’ of Australians, insurance had become prohibitively expensive or ‘simply unavailable’ due to their location in ‘high risk’ areas.[34] Such households are exposed to immense financial loss in the event of a natural disaster.
KEY QUESTIONS
- Why is it difficult to measure the impact of climate change on Australia’s personal insolvency system?
- What factors can hasten or delay an individual’s decision to enter personal insolvency, following an extreme weather event?
- Michael Grose and Pandora Hope, CSIRO, ‘Climate Change and Extreme Events — Quantifying the Changing Odds’ (Web Page, 27 November 2019) <https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2019/november/climate-change-and-extreme-events-quantifying-the-changing-odds>. ↵
- Senate Select Committee on the Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Premiums and Availability, Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Premiums and Availability (Report, November 2024) 5 (‘Senate Select Committee Report’). ↵
- Paul de Jersey, ‘Opening Address’ (Speech, 18th Insolvency Practitioners’ Association National Conference, 2 June 2011) 2. ↵
- R Lawless, ‘Bankruptcy Filing Rates After a Major Hurricane’ (2005) 6 Nevada Law Journal 7, 9; cited in de Jersey (n 3) at 2. A more recent study also found a ‘positive connection between a hurricane event and subsequent bankruptcy filings’ but found that these filings ‘occur much more rapidly than the Lawless study indicated’: Billie Ann Brotman and Brett Katzma, ‘Floridian Bankruptcies and Local Property Damage in the United States’ (2022) 39(5) Studies in Economics and Finance 786, 788, 795. ↵
- Lawless (n 4) 9. ↵
- de Jersey (n 3) 3. ↵
- Evgenia Bourova, Ian Ramsay and Paul Ali, ‘Unaffordable, Untrustworthy or Unnecessary? Reasons for Foregoing Building, Home Contents and Comprehensive Car Insurance in Disaster-Prone Australia’ (2024) 27(3) Risk Management and Insurance Review 331, 333 (‘Unaffordable’). ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- de Jersey (n 3) 2–3. ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- Ibid 5. ↵
- AFSA, ‘Statement of Affairs Form’, Forms to Apply for Bankruptcy (Form) <https://www.afsa.gov.au/professionals/resource-hub/forms/bankruptcy-forms>. ↵
- It only offers eight broad categories (including ‘unemployment’ and ‘excessive borrowing’), with a text box allowing the applicant to provide more information: ibid 4. ↵
- Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tasha (Web Page, 2025) <https://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/Tasha.shtml>. ↵
- ABC News, Timeline: Five Years on From Deadly Brisbane and South-East Queensland Floods (Web Page, 10 January 2016) <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-10/queensland-floods-2011-timeline/7035258>. ↵
- Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Final Report (2012) 32. ↵
- Anna Hartley and Elly Bradfield, ‘A Summer of Sorrow’, ABC News (Web Page, 10 January 2021) <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-10/south-east-qld-floods-anniversary-2011/13003092>. ↵
- ABC News, Qld Flood Claims More Than b (Web Page, 24 January 2011) <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-01-24/qld-flood-claims-more-than-1b/1915674>. ↵
- Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (n 16) 289. ↵
- Ibid 32. ↵
- de Jersey (n 3) 3. ↵
- Though prices recovered within a few years: see Baz Ruddock, ‘Brisbane House Prices Predicted to Bounce Back After Flood-Induced Fall’, ABC News (Web Page, 7 March 2022) <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/qld-south-east-queensland-floods-house-prices/100882770>; see also Cameron S Fletcher et al, ‘The Behaviour of Property Prices When Affected by Infrequent Floods’ (2022) 122 Land Use Policy 106378. ↵
- de Jersey (n 3) 4. ↵
- Only one insurer provided automatic cover for all types of flood, declining only 2% of claims. Excluding claims made to that insurer, 39% of claims were declined: Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (n 16) 291. ↵
- Jason Bryce, ‘Full Impact of Queensland’s Floods Yet to Hit Families’, Courier-Mail (Web Page, 24 April 2011) <https://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/full-flood-impact-yet-to-hit-families/news-story/bbe8d18de3d4def0bc5c42a826289504>. ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- There were 2,363 personal insolvencies in Queensland in the first quarter of 2010 and 2,026 in the first quarter of 2011 (representing a decrease of 14%). Nationally, there were 9,026 personal insolvencies in the first quarter of 2010 and 7,586 in the first quarter of 2011 (representing a decrease of 16%). AFSA, ‘Quarterly Personal Insolvency Statistics Time Series’, Quarterly Personal Insolvency Statistics (Web Page) <https://www.afsa.gov.au/about-us/statistics-and-insights/quarterly-personal-insolvency-statistics>. ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- Senate Select Committee Report (n 2) 7. ↵
- Marina Trajkovich, ‘“We Have Nowhere To Go”: Queenslanders Devastated by Unfolding Flood Crisis’, 9News (Web Page, 4 March 2022). ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- Ibid. ↵
- Senate Select Committee Report (n 2) vii. ↵
- Ibid. See also Bourova et al, ‘Unaffordable’ (n 7); Evgenia Bourova, Ian Ramsay and Paul Ali, ‘Unmet Need for Building, Home Contents and Comprehensive Car Insurance among Uninsured Australians: Survey Findings and Options for Reform’ (2024) 46(2) Sydney Law Review 165. ↵
A collection of legal processes governed by the Bankruptcy Act 1966 (Cth), and regulated by the Australian Financial Security Authority, offering debt relief to individuals in severe financial hardship.
A legal process, governed by the Bankruptcy Act 1966 (Cth), allowing an individual to obtain permanent release from debts that cannot be repaid.